2021-03-12 注意警告標誌
Heeding Warning Signs注意警告標誌
March 11, 2021
Dennis Miller
Heeding Warning Signs - Weathered Warning Signs.It was a picture-perfect afternoon in Fort Myers, Florida. Jo, Holly, my son Drew, a couple of his college baseball teammates and I decided to take our brand-new boat for a spin in the Gulf.
注意警告標誌- 天氣警告標誌。這是佛羅里達州邁爾斯堡一個完美的下午。喬，霍莉，我的兒子德魯（Drew）和他的幾個大學棒球隊友，我決定乘我們全新的船在海灣中轉一圈。
I passed my Coast Guard course and was full of confidence. We barreled toward the markers at the entrance of the Caloosahatchee River and I noticed a lot of people waving at us. I smiled and waved back.
我通過了海岸警衛隊的課程，並且充滿信心。我們朝著Caloosahatchee河入口處的標誌物開了過去，我注意到很多人向我們招手。我微笑著揮手。
BOOM! We ran aground. Jo was folding towels at the stern and went flying past me. Her face hit the cabin door, teeth were flying and she fell inside. I was terrified.
BOOM！我們擱淺了。喬正在船尾折疊毛巾，飛過我身邊。她的臉碰到機艙門，牙齒飛舞著，她掉進了裡面。我嚇壞了。
The Coast Guard picked up the girls in a small rubber boat. Jo headed to the hospital. A lot of pain and four implants later, her smile is intact.
海岸警衛隊用橡皮艇將女孩們抱起。喬去醫院了。經過很多痛苦和四次手術，她的笑容完好無損。
We had an unusually low tide. The people who were waving were not smiling, they were warning us and I didn’t realize it. Around midnight, the tide came in and the boys were able to push us to deeper water. One engine worked and we limped into the dock. I shuddered as I typed and relived the incident.
我們的潮汐異常低。揮舞著的人沒有微笑，他們在警告我們，但我沒有意識到。午夜前後，潮水湧入，男孩們得以將我們推向更深的水域。一台發動機工作了，我們進了碼頭。當我回想並重述此事件時，我不寒而栗。
Some Big Boys are frowning and waving their arms!
一些大男孩皺著眉頭，揮舞著手臂！
Shortly after finishing our recent interview with Chuck Butler about inflation, Zerohedge reports, “Bank of America (BofA) Hints That Weimar 2.0 Could Be Coming”:
在完成我們最近對Chuck Butler的通貨膨脹採訪之後，Zerohedge報告了“美國銀行暗示**威瑪2.0可能即將到來”：
**小編註解: 德國，威瑪市事件，第一次世界大戰後，經歷的惡性通貨膨脹**
“It’s no secret that BofA’s Chief Investment Officer has been warning that 2021…is one where real inflation will run amok sooner or later,…he repeats…how events will play out in the coming months, namely ‘the velocity of people will rise’ and ‘the velocity of money will (also) rise’.
“眾所周知，美國銀行首席投資官一直在警告2021年……這是遲早真正的通貨膨脹會加劇的地方，……他重複說……在接下來的幾個月中情況將如何發展，即'人民的速度將上升'。和“貨幣周轉流通的速度也會（也）上升”。
…. BofA…expects…2021 to engender rise in velocity of money, with the ‘inflation mutating’ from Wall Street to Main Street, resulting in a pop in the nihilistic bubble.
…。美國銀行…預計…2021年將導致貨幣速度上升，隨著“通貨膨脹從華爾街到主要街道的變化”，將導致虛無主義泡沫的爆發。
And here is the punchline: BofA reflects back on the post-WW1 Germany as the ‘most epic, extreme analog of surging velocity and inflation following end of war psychology, pent-up savings, lost confidence in currency & authorities’ and specifically the Reichsbank’s monetization of debt, similar of course to what is going on now.
重點是：美國銀行在第一次世界大戰後將德國反思為“戰爭結束後心理，被壓抑的儲蓄，對貨幣和當局失去信心之後，速度和通貨膨脹率的最史詩般，極端的模擬”，尤其是帝國銀行的債務貨幣化，當然與現在的情況類似。
There is, of course, another name for that period: Weimar Germany, and…it is understandable why BofA does not want to mention that particular name.”
當然，那個時期還有另外一個名字：德國魏瑪（Weimar Germany），…………美國銀行為什麼不想提及這個名字是可以理解的。”
Shortly thereafter Zerohedge adds, “Michael Burry Warns Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming”.
此後不久，Zerohedge補充說：“邁克爾·伯里（Michael Burry）警告魏瑪惡性通貨膨脹即將到來”。
“One day after the Weimar tweetstorm below,…Burry tweeted the following:
“在下面的魏瑪（Weimar）雷暴襲擊發生的第二天，……伯里（Burry）在推特上發布了以下內容：
‘People say I didn’t warn last time. I did, but no one listened. So I warn this time. And still, no one listens. But I will have proof I warned.’
‘人們說我上次沒有警告。我做到了，但是沒人聽。所以這次我警告。仍然沒有人聽。但是我會有已經警告的證據。’
Indeed he will.
的確，他會的。
None other than the Big Short, Michael Burry …. picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next in a lengthy tweetstorm.”
除了邁克爾·伯里（Michael Burry）……。選擇了魏瑪德國（Weimar Germany）主題，特別是其惡性通貨膨脹，作為一場漫長的鳴叫風暴的藍圖。”
Quoting a Burry tweet:
引用Burry推文：
“The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.”
“美國政府通過其**MMT風格的政策來鼓勵通貨膨脹。債務/ GDP旺盛，M2上升，而零售額，PMI階段*V型復甦。隨著員工和供應鏈成本飛漲，更多的刺激措施和重新開放可以刺激需求。”
**小編註解: MMT(Modern Money Theory) 現代金錢理論。透過增加/縮減貨幣供應量來人為介入改變經濟狀況的方式。
*V型復甦: 意旨市場重挫至谷底後，經濟復甦，買家湧入買進，進而抬高資產價值。
Why aren’t people listening?
人們為什麼不聽呢？
We have been inundated with inflation cries since the 2008 bailout. When the government creates fake money out of thin air, isn’t that supposed to cause inflation? Why hasn’t it happened?
自2008年的救助計劃以來，我們已飽受通脹壓力的困擾。當政府憑空創造假錢時，那不應該導致通貨膨脹嗎？為什麼沒有發生呢？
James Rickards article, “Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think” is an easy-to-understand primer:
詹姆斯·里卡德（James Rickards）的文章“通貨膨脹率比您想像的要快得多”是一個易於理解的入門文章：
“Many investors assume that the root cause of hyperinflation is governments printing money to cover deficits. Money printing does contribute to hyperinflation, but it is not a complete explanation.
“許多投資者認為惡性通貨膨脹的根本原因是政府印製鈔票以彌補赤字。金錢印刷確實助長了惡性通貨膨脹，但這不是一個完整的解釋。
…. The other essential ingredient is velocity, or the turnover of money. If central banks print money and that money is left in banks and not used by consumers, then actual inflation can be low.
…。另一個基本要素是速度或貨幣周轉率。如果中央銀行印製貨幣，而這些貨幣留在銀行中而不供消費者使用，那麼實際的通貨膨脹率可能會很低。
This is the situation in the U.S. today. The Federal Reserve has expanded the base money supply by over $6 trillion since 2008, with over $3 trillion of that coming since last February alone.
今天的美國就是這種情況。自2008年以來，美聯儲已將基礎貨幣供應量增加了6萬億美元以上，僅去年2月以來，基礎貨幣供應量就超過3萬億美元。
But very little actual inflation has resulted, or at least very little official inflation. (Emphasis mine) This is because the velocity of money has been decreasing. Banks have not been lending much, and consumers haven’t been spending much of the new money. It’s just sitting in the banks.”
但是，實際通貨膨脹率很小，或者至少官方通貨膨脹率很小。 （強調我的）這是因為貨幣流通速度一直在下降。銀行放貸不多，消費者也沒有花很多新錢。它只是坐在銀行里。”
Rickards explains inflation is psychological, and self-destructive:
里卡茲（Rickards）解釋說通貨膨脹是心理上的，並且具有自我毀滅性：
“Money printing first turns into inflation, and then hyperinflation, when consumers and businesses lose confidence in price stability and see more inflation on the horizon. At that point, money is dumped in exchange for current consumption or hard assets, thus increasing velocity.
“當消費者和企業對價格穩定失去信心並看到更多的通貨膨脹時，印鈔首先會變成通貨膨脹，然後是惡性通貨膨脹。那時，錢被傾銷以換取當前的消費或硬資產，從而提高了速度。
As inflation velocity spikes up, expectations of more inflation grow, and the process accelerates and feeds on itself. In extreme cases, consumers will spend their entire paycheck on groceries, gasoline and gold the minute they receive it.
隨著通貨膨脹率的猛增，對更多通貨膨脹的期望也隨之增長，這一過程加速並以其為生。在極端情況下，消費者在收到雜貨，汽油和黃金的那一刻就會花光所有的薪水。
They know holding their money in the bank will result in their hard-earned pay being wiped out. The important point is that hyperinflation is not just a monetary phenomenon – it’s first and foremost a psychological or behavioral phenomenon.” (Emphasis mine)
他們知道，將錢存放在銀行中會導致血汗淋漓的薪水被淘汰。重要的一點是，惡性通貨膨脹不僅是貨幣現象，而且首先是心理或行為現象。” （強調點）
What about money supply and velocity?
貨幣供應量和(周轉)速度如何？
When it comes to the facts, I look to John Williams at www.shadowstats.com. How much has the money supply increased and how much is in the hands of consumers to spend?
說到事實，我可以在www.shadowstats.com上找到John Williams。貨幣供應量增加了多少，消費者手中有多少錢可以花呢？
John’s February 15, 2020 commentary provides the following graphs:
約翰（John）於2020年2月15日發表的評論提供了以下圖表：
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January 2021 Money Supply M1, M2, M3 - Trillions of Dollars, And January 2021 Money Supply - Yr to Yr Percent Change - Credit: Shadowstats.com
2021年1月貨幣供應量M1，M2，M3-萬億美元，以及2021年1月貨幣供應量-年間百分比變化-貸方：Shadowstats.com
What is M0, M1, M2 and M3?
Traders Paradise offers this explanation:
什麼是M0，M1，M2和M3？
交易者天堂提供了以下解釋：
M0 and M1, also called narrow money, normally include coins and notes in circulation and other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash.
M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds.
M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits and money market funds with more than 24-hour maturity.
We see the increases Rickards discussed; and particularly a sharp spike in the last year. Fuel is being added to the equation for sure!
M0和M1，也稱為狹義貨幣，通常包括流通的硬幣和紙幣以及其他易於轉換為現金的等價貨幣。
M2包括M1加上銀行的短期定期存款和24小時貨幣市場基金。
M3包括M2以及期限超過24小時的長期定期存款和貨幣市場基金。
我們看到了里卡德斯討論的增加；尤其是去年的大幅增長。可以肯定地將燃料(意旨: 更加劇) 添加到方程式中！
Hyperinflation is generally defined as prices increasing 50% or more in a single month. You can have terrible, destructive inflation without meeting the hyperinflation standard.
惡性通貨膨脹通常被定義為一個月內價格上漲50％或更多。如果不滿足惡性通貨膨脹標準，您可能會遭受可怕的破壞性通貨膨脹。
Rickards explains:
“Hyperinflation doesn’t emerge instantaneously. It begins slowly with normal inflation and then accelerates violently at an increasing rate until it becomes hyperinflation. This is critical for investors to understand because much of the damage to your wealth actually occurs at the inflationary stage, not the hyperinflationary stage. (Emphasis mine)
“惡性通貨膨脹不會立即出現。它以正常的充氣開始緩慢地開始，然後以遞增的速度猛烈地加速，直到它變成惡性通貨膨脹為止。這對投資者而言至關重要，因為對您的財富造成的大部分損害實際上發生在通貨膨脹階段，而不是惡性通貨膨脹階段。
The hyperinflation of Weimar Germany is a good example of this.
魏瑪德國的惡性通貨就是一個很好的例子
In January 1919, the exchange rate of German reichsmarks to U.S. dollars was 8.2 to 1. By January 1922, three years later, the exchange rate was 207.82 to 1. The reichsmark had lost 96% of its value in three years. By the standard definition, this is not hyperinflation because it…was never 50% in any single month.
1919年1月，德國馬克對美元的匯率為8.2比1。到1922年1月，三年後，匯率為207.82比1。德國馬克在三年內貶值了96％。按照標准定義，這不是惡性通貨膨脹，因為它……在任何一個月中從未達到50％。
By the end of 1922, hyperinflation had struck Germany, with the reichsmark going from 3,180 to one dollar in October to 7,183 to one dollar in November. …. The reichsmark did lose half its value in a single month, thus meeting the definition of hyperinflation.
到1922年底，惡性通貨膨脹襲擊了德國，德國馬克從10月份的3,180美元跌至1美元，11月的7,183美元跌至1美元。 …。帝國馬克在一個月內確實損失了一半的價值，因此符合惡性通貨膨脹的定義。
One year later, in November 1923, the exchange rate was 4.2 trillion reichsmarks to one dollar. History tends to focus on 1923 when the currency was debased 58 billion percent. But that extreme hyperinflation of 1923 was just a matter of destroying the remaining 4% of people’s wealth at an accelerating rate. The real damage was done from 1919-1922, before hyperinflation, when the first 96% was lost.“ (Emphasis mine)
一年後的1923年11月，匯率為4.2萬億德國馬克兌1美元。歷史往往集中在1923年，當時該貨幣貶值了580億％。但是，1923年的極端惡性通貨膨脹只是以加速的速度摧毀了其餘4％的財富。真正的損害發生在1919年至1922年之間，當時惡性通貨膨脹率先損失了96％。”（強調點）
This Zerohedge provided graph illustrates his point:
Zerohedge提供的這張圖說明了他的觀點：
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Chart: End of WW1 caused jump in German money velocity and inflation
圖表：第一次世界大戰結束導致德國貨幣流通速度和通貨膨脹率飆升
Rickards is waving his arms:
里卡德斯揮舞著他的手臂：
“If you think this can’t happen here or now, think again. …. Something like this started in the late 1970s. The U.S. dollar suffered 50% inflation in the five years from 1977-1981. We were taking off toward hyperinflation, relatively close to where Germany was in 1920.
“如果您認為現在或現在不可能發生這種情況，請再考慮一遍。 …。像這樣的事情始於1970年代後期。從1977年到1981年的五年中，美元遭受了50％的通脹。我們正朝著惡性通貨膨脹起飛，相對接近1920年的德國。
Most wealth in savings and fixed income claims had been lost already. Hyperinflation in America was prevented by the combined actions of Paul Volcker and Ronald Reagan, but it was a close call.
儲蓄和固定收益債權中的大多數財富已經丟失。保羅·沃爾克（Paul Volcker）和羅納德·裡根（Ronald Reagan）的共同行動阻止了美國的惡性通貨膨脹，但這是一個面臨崩潰的救援。
Today the Federal Reserve assumes if inflation moves up to 3% or more in the U.S., they can gently dial it back to their preferred 2% target. …. That change is not easy to cause, and once it happens, it is even harder to reverse.
今天，美聯儲（Fed）假設，如果美國通脹率上升至3％或更高，他們可以將其溫和地調回其首選的2％目標。 …。這種變化不容易引起，一旦發生，就更難以逆轉。
If inflation does hit 3%, it is more likely to go to 6% or higher, rather than back down to 2%. The process will feed on itself and be difficult to stop.
如果通脹確實達到3％，則很有可能升至6％或更高，而不是回落至2％。該過程將自行完成，並且很難停止。
Sadly, there are no Volckers or Reagans on the horizon today. There are only weak political leaders and misguided central bankers.”
My parents were nearing retirement during the high inflation Carter years. Their nest egg was in Certificates of Deposit, and they lost nearly half their buying power. It was impossible for them to recover their lost wealth during their remaining working years.
可悲的是，今天沒有沃爾克或裡根。只有軟弱的政治領導人和被誤導的中央銀行。”
在卡特高通脹時期，我的父母快要退休了。他們的儲備金存放在存款證明中，他們失去了將近一半的購買力。他們不可能在剩餘的工作年中追回失去的財富。
Here is what we know
這就是我們所知道的
No one I know is crying wolf. They are genuinely concerned and feel it is just a matter of time.
我知道沒有人在忽視。他們是真正關心的人，並認為這只是時間問題而已。
The government is inflating the money supply, inflation and velocity is picking up.
Food and gas prices are already close to 6%. Consumers are not fooled by the official government numbers.
Paul Volker and Ronald Reagan wouldn’t have a chance today.
I understand Bill Gates is buying a lot of farmland. Might he be telling us something?
政府正在誇大貨幣供應，通貨膨脹和速度正在加快。
食品和天然氣價格已經接近6％。消費者不會被官方的官方數字所欺騙。
保羅·沃爾克（Paul Volker）和羅納德·裡根（Ronald Reagan）今天將沒有機會。
我了解比爾·蓋茨（Bill Gates）正在購買大量農田。他可能會告訴我們一些事情嗎？
Hopefully, we will never get to the hyperinflation stage; but protecting our wealth from damaging inflation is a major concern. Hard assets, precious metals, and holding foreign currency is a good place to start!
希望我們永遠不會進入惡性通貨膨脹階段。但是保護我們的財富不受破壞性通脹是一個主要問題。硬資產，貴金屬和持有**外幣是一個不錯的起點！
**小編註解: 在此外幣意指美元以外的貨幣
On The Lighter Side
在較輕鬆的一面
I want to start with a public service announcement. I’m having trouble answering email from readers. For some reason, the system is returning my replies to readers with Outlook, Hotmail and other Microsoft addresses. If you have not heard from me, I apologize. We are working on getting it resolved. This stuff is really frustrating!
我想從公共服務公告開始。我在回答讀者的電子郵件時遇到問題。由於某種原因，系統會將我的回復發送給具有Outlook，Hotmail和其他Microsoft地址的讀者。如果您沒有收到我的來信，我深表歉意。我們正在努力解決它。這東西真令人沮喪！
Jo and I are driving across the country this week to Indiana. We are pet-sitting while the kids enjoy spring break. We’re hoping for good weather; particularly for driving.
喬和我本週要開車穿越全國去印第安那州。當孩子們享受春假時，我們正在保姆。我們希望天氣晴朗；特別是對於駕駛。
The Miller's Backyard, Blue skiesOur weather has been great. I’m enjoying sitting on the back porch in the afternoon.
米勒的後院，藍天我們的天氣一直很好。下午我很喜歡坐在後廊。
The other day a beautiful bird (hawk or owl), with a huge wingspan began soaring high above. It dawned on me I’d love a picture.
前幾天，一隻有著巨大翼展的美麗鳥（鷹或貓頭鷹）開始高高地飛翔。我想要這一幅照片，這在我身上突然出現了。
By the time I grabbed the camera, it was gone. The photo is what pilots call “CAVU” (Ceiling and visibility unlimited). I’m hoping to find another opportunity to get a photo, but so far, no luck.
當我拿起相機時，它已經不見了。這張照片被飛行員稱為“ CAVU”（天花板和視野無限）。我希望能找到其他機會來照相，但到目前為止，還沒有運氣。
Quote of the Week
本週引言
“The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us.”
— Bill Watterson
“智能生命存在於宇宙中其他地方的最確鑿的跡像是，它從未嘗試與我們聯繫。”
—比爾·沃特森（Bill Watterson）
And Finally…
最後…
Friend Phil C. sends along some questions for our amusement:
朋友Phil C.向我們提出了一些有趣的問題：
How important does a person have to be before they are considered assassinated instead of just murdered?
Once you’re in heaven, do you get stuck wearing the clothes you were buried in for eternity?
How did the man who made the first clock know what time it was?
Why do people pay to go up tall buildings and then put money in binoculars to look at things on the ground?
Why do you have to “put your two cents in”… but it’s only a “penny for your thoughts”? Are the thought police collecting the extra penny for taxes?
And my favorite:
一個人被視為暗殺而不是被謀殺之前，必須有多重要？
進入天堂後，您是否會陷入永恆被埋葬的衣服中而陷入困境？
製作第一個時鐘的人怎麼知道現在幾點了？
人們為什麼要花錢去上高樓，然後用雙筒望遠鏡放錢看地面上的東西？
為什麼您必須“投入兩分錢”……但是，這只是“您的想法的一分錢”？有思想的警察會收取額外的一分錢稅金嗎？
我最喜歡的是：
With the invention of self-driving vehicles, how long before we hear a country song where a guy’s truck leaves him too?
Until next time…
隨著自動駕駛汽車的發明，我們聽到一首鄉村歌曲的聲音有多久，當時有一個人的卡車也離開了他？
下次見…
Dennis Miller
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用來源: Miller, ON THE MONEY
* 以上僅此作者個人觀點，不應做為投資建議。請務必詢問專業資產顧問再投資*
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