2021-03-17 雷·達里奧（Ray Dalio）關於“令人震驚的”稅收變化：可能會看到針對黃金，比特幣的新“禁令”
Ray Dalio on 'shocking' tax changes: Could see new 'prohibitions' against gold, bitcoin雷·達里奧（Ray Dalio）關於“令人震驚的”稅收變化：可能會看到針對黃金，比特幣的新“禁令”
Anna Golubova
Tuesday March 16, 2021 13:37
With so much debt in the U.S., financial markets are entering a new paradigm, where we could see "shocking" tax changes that might involve prohibitions against capital movements to assets like gold, bitcoin, and other tax jurisdictions, said Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.
Bridgewater Associates創始人Ray Dalio說，由於美國的債務如此之多，金融市場正在進入一個新的範式，在這裡我們可以看到“令人震驚的”稅收變化，其中可能包括禁止將資本轉移到黃金，比特幣和其他稅收管轄區之類的資產。 。
"Because I believe that we are in the late stage of this Big Debt Cycle … I believe cash is and will continue to be trash (i.e., have returns that are significantly negative relative to inflation) so it pays to a) borrow cash rather than to hold it as an asset and b) buy higher-returning, non-debt investment assets," Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“因為我相信我們正處於大債務週期的後期……我相信現金現在而且將繼續變垃圾（即，相對於通貨膨脹具有顯著負值的收益），所以它支付給(a）借現金而不是現金將其作為資產持有，並(b）購買回報率更高的非債務型投資資產，”達里奧在LinkedIn文章中寫道。
Tax changes will play a massive role in dealing with the debt problem going forward, he elaborated. And more importantly, there might be restrictions in terms of where investors could move their capital.
他解釋說，稅收改革將在解決未來的債務問題方面發揮巨大作用。更重要的是，在投資者可將資金轉移到何處方面可能存在限制。
"Policymakers who are short of money will raise taxes and won't like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storehold of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.) and other locations. These tax changes could be more shocking than expected," the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund said.
“缺乏資金的政策制定者將提高稅收，不願將這些資本從債務資產轉移到財富資產和其他稅收領域的其他倉庫，因此他們很可能會禁止資本流入其他資產（例如，黃金、比特幣等）和其他地點。這些稅收變化可能比預期的更令人震驚。”
Dalio's analysis is based on how things have worked in the past and what is happening with debt now.
達里奧（Dalio）的分析基於過去的運作方式以及現在債務的狀況。
"I am confident that tax changes will also play an important role in driving capital flows to different investment assets and different locations, and those movements will influence market movements," he said.
他說：“我相信，稅收變化在推動資本流向不同的投資資產和不同的地點方面也將發揮重要作用，這些變化將影響市場的變化。”
As an example, Dalio reminded investors that during the 1930-45 period, the Fed was able to control yields by "outlawing gold and the movement of capital elsewhere."
例如，達里奧提醒投資者，在1930-45年期間，美聯儲通過“取締黃金和其他地方的資本流動”來控制收益。
He continued: "While I want to be short bonds (because they have the most terrible fundamentals), I do know that central bankers can keep cash more terrible, and I do know that they might have to prevent the movement to other storehold of wealth assets and other countries … History and logic show that central banks, when faced with the supply/demand imbalance situation that would lead interest rates to rise to more than is desirable in light of economic circumstances, will print the money to buy bonds and create 'yield curve controls' to put a cap on bond yields and will devalue cash."
他繼續說：“雖然我想短線出脫債券（因為它們的基本面最糟糕），但我確實知道央行可以使現金更可怕，而且我確實知道他們可能必須防止轉移到其他財富持有者資產和其他國家…歷史和邏輯表明，當央行面臨供需失衡的局面（可能導致利率升至超出經濟狀況所希望的水平）時，央行將印製這些資金以購買債券並創造“收益率曲線控件'限制債券收益率，並使現金貶值。”
When talking about tax changes, Dalio also alluded to Elizabeth Warren's proposed wealth tax, saying that its unprecedented size would trigger capital outflows to evade higher taxes.
在談到稅收變化時，達利奧還提到了伊麗莎白·沃倫（Elizabeth Warren）提出的財富稅，稱其空前規模將觸發資本外流，以逃避更高的稅收。
"The United States could become perceived as a place that is inhospitable to capitalism and capitalists. Though this specific wealth tax bill is unlikely to pass this year, the chances of a sizable wealth tax bill passing over the next few years are significant. Conflicts can increase in such difficult times when accompanied by large wealth, values, and political gaps, and the environment can become inhospitable to capitalists leading them to run from less hospitable places to more hospitable places," he explained.
“美國可能會被視為一個資本主義和資本家不宜居住的地方。儘管這一具體的財富稅法案今年不太可能通過，但未來幾年通過相當大的財富稅法案的機會是巨大的。衝突可以在富裕的財富，價值和政治鴻溝伴隨而來的困難時期中，資本家的環境變得變得不友好，導致資本家們從不那麼好客的地方轉向更好客的地方。”
This is the new investing paradigm Dalio is talking about, and for him, the solution is "a well-diversified portfolio of non-debt and non-dollar assets along with a short cash position is preferable to a traditional stock/bond mix that is heavily skewed to U.S. dollars."
這就是Dalio談論的新的投資範例，對他來說，解決方案是“非債務和非美元資產的多樣化投資組合以及現金頭寸比傳統的股票/債券組合更可取。著重轉移出美元相關資產。”
He also sees Asian emerging countries' markets outperforming developed reserve currency countries.
他還認為，亞洲新興市場的市場表現要優於已開發國家。
"The economics of investing in bonds (and most financial assets) has become stupid," he pointed out. "Rather than get paid less than inflation, why not instead buy stuff — any stuff — that will equal inflation or better?"
他指出：“投資債券（和大多數金融資產）的經濟學已經變得愚蠢了。” “與其獲得比通貨膨脹低的報酬，不如為什麼不購買等於通貨膨脹或更佳的東西？”
The COVID-19 pandemic and all the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus that followed created a lot of debt as well as classical signs of bubbles across many assets, Dalio added.
Dalio補充說，COVID-19疫情大流行以及隨之而來的所有財政和貨幣政策刺激措施造成了大量債務以及許多資產泡沫的經典跡象。
"These circumstances created a lot of government debt—i.e., because there wasn't enough free-market buying of this debt, central banks had to buy it and had to print a lot of money to buy it with—so much so that they drove rates down to 'artificially' low levels, which 'artificially' supported financial asset prices," he wrote. "Now, there's just so much money injected into the markets and the economy that the markets are like a casino with people playing with funny money … You have stocks that have gone up, and you have classic bubble dynamics in so many different assets."
“這些情況造成了很多政府債務，即由於沒有足夠的自由市場購買這種債務，中央銀行不得不購買它，並不得不印製很多錢來購買它，以至於它們將利率降低到“人為”的低水平，這“人為”地支持了金融資產價格，”他寫道。 “現在，市場和經濟中註入的資金如此之多，市場就像一個賭場，人們在玩著有趣的錢……您的股票上漲了，並且在許多不同的資產中都有經典的泡沫動態。”
By Anna Golubova
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用來源: Kitco News ， Ray Dalio Twitter
** 內容僅供參考，不應做為投資建議。**
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