2021-07-12 金價正在關注美聯儲與鮑威爾下週的證詞談話
Gold price is watching Fed's tapering talk with Powell's testimony on the docket next week金價正在關注美聯儲與鮑威爾下週在案卷上的證詞的談話
Anna Golubova
Friday July 09, 2021 14:42
Gold is holding above $1,800 an ounce as all eyes turn to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress next week, with markets searching for new tapering clues.
黃金守在每盎司 1,800 美元上方，因為所有人的目光都轉向了美聯儲主席杰羅姆鮑威爾下周向國會作的半年度貨幣政策證詞，市場正在尋找新的縮減線索。
The precious metal is wrapping up the week with a gain of 1.4% as August Comex gold futures trade around the $1,808 level.
隨著 8 月 Comex 黃金期貨交易於 1,808 美元附近，貴金屬本週上漲 1.4%。
Powell's upcoming testimony on Wednesday is the event to watch next week, according to analysts, who cite markets' anticipation of the Fed clarifying its tapering timeline.
分析師表示，鮑威爾週三即將發表的證詞是下週值得關注的事件，他們援引市場對美聯儲澄清其縮減時間表的預期。
"Given the supply-side strains within the economy, the likely timing of policy tightening is being brought forward, and [Powell] may offer clearer hints that a tapering of QE asset purchases will start this year," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.
ING首席國際經濟學家詹姆斯奈特利表示：“鑑於經濟內部的供給側壓力，政策收緊的可能時機正在提前，[鮑威爾]可能會提供更明確的暗示，即今年將開始縮減量化寬鬆資產購買規模。” .
Next week, multiple data reports will also help the markets gauge where the U.S. economy is and how hawkish the Fed will be going forward. On the radar are June's inflation numbers and retail sales figures, which will be released on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Other key datasets to monitor are Wednesday's PPI numbers and Thursday's jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and NY Empire State manufacturing index.
下週，多份數據報告也將幫助市場衡量美國經濟狀況以及美聯儲未來將採取強硬態度。值得關注的是 6 月份的通脹數據和零售銷售數據，它們將分別於週二和周五公佈。其他需要監控的關鍵數據集是周三的 PPI 數據和周四的初請失業金人數、費城聯儲製造業指數和紐約帝國州製造業指數。
However, given the spread of the COVID-19 variants across the globe and tame economic numbers coming out lately, some analysts do not see central banks, including the Fed, turning aggressively hawkish any time soon.
然而，鑑於 COVID-19 變種病毒在全球範圍內的傳播以及最近公佈的溫和經濟數據，一些分析師認為包括美聯儲在內的中央銀行不會很快轉向強硬立場。
"There was a lot of focus on global growth concerns this week coming from the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant around certain countries. A lot of the world is nowhere near the end of this pandemic. That is going to support more accommodative monetary policies throughout much of the world," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.
“由於 COVID-19 Delta 變體在某些國家/地區的傳播，本週人們非常關注全球增長問題。世界上很多地方距離這種流行病的結束還很遠。這將支持更寬鬆的貨幣政策世界大部分地區的政策，”OANDA 高級市場分析師愛德華莫亞告訴 Kitco 新聞。
The FOMC meeting minutes released this week also did not signal that the Fed has turned hawkish, said TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek. All the Fed said was that it was unwilling to sacrifice price stability at the alter of full employment, he pointed out.
道明證券全球策略主管巴特梅萊克表示，本周公布的 FOMC 會議紀要也沒有表明美聯儲已經轉為鷹派。他指出，美聯儲只說它不願意在充分就業的情況下犧牲價格穩定。
"The Fed is likely to remain accommodative, especially in light of the spreading Delta variant, inflation pressures abating (including a significant drop in lumber prices), and problems with employment data, including the low participation rate," Melek said. "There's no reason to think that the Fed will get particularly aggressive on the interest rate front."
“美聯儲可能會保持寬鬆，特別是考慮到 Delta 變量的擴大、通脹壓力減弱（包括木材價格大幅下跌）以及就業數據存在問題，包括參與率低，”梅萊克說。 “沒有理由認為美聯儲會在利率方面變得特別激進。”
That is good news for gold, Moya added. "It looks like we'll see tamer pricing reports coming next week out of Europe and the U.S. That is going to keep the gold trade going strong. Gold is going to benefit from the Fed that will likely remain accommodative," he said.
莫亞補充說，這對黃金來說是個好消息。 “看起來我們將在下週看到歐洲和美國的溫和定價報告，這將使黃金交易保持強勁。美聯儲可能會保持寬鬆，黃金將受益，”他說。
Signs of central banks remaining accommodative around the globe are already here. China, for example, said on Friday that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 50 basis points, effective from July 15. This will free up around $154.19 billion in long-term liquidity that will boost China's slowing post-COVID economic recovery.
全球央行保持寬鬆的跡像已經出現。例如，中國周五表示，將從 7 月 15 日起將大多數銀行的存款準備金率下調 50 個基點。這將釋放約 1,541.9 億美元的長期流動性，這將推動中國在新冠肺炎疫情后放緩的經濟恢復。
"This is the story markets should be focusing on," Moya said. That is a big step back for a country that has been leading the economic recovery against COVID-19. You are going to see this theme continue around the world."
“這是市場應該關注的故事，”莫亞說。對於一個一直引領經濟復甦以對抗 COVID-19 的國家來說，這是一個很大的倒退。你會看到這個主題在世界各地繼續進行。”
Global growth concerns and further accommodation by central banks are the two key reasons why Moya is bullish on gold going forward.
全球經濟增長擔憂和央行進一步寬鬆是莫亞看好未來黃金的兩個關鍵原因。
"Growth worries have some banks pumping their breaks as far as tapering goes. There's more cautiousness out there. The slowdown in China's GDP supports the argument that we are still fighting this pandemic. This could accelerate risk aversion, and if that happens, gold should see more safe-haven flows," Moya explained.
“對增長的擔憂讓一些銀行在縮減規模的情況下放了假。那裡更加謹慎。中國 GDP 的放緩支持了我們仍在與這種流行病作鬥爭的論點。這可能會加速避險情緒，如果發生這種情況，黃金應該看到更多避險資金流動，”莫亞解釋說。
The U.S. Treasury yields have also started to worry the markets as the 10-year yield dropped below 1.3% this week. At the time of writing, the 10-year yield was back up at 1.35%.
由於本週 10 年期國債收益率跌至 1.3% 以下，美國國債收益率也開始令市場擔憂。在撰寫本文時，10 年期國債收益率回升至 1.35%。
"There is concern out there that lower yields signal significantly reduced growth expectations," Melek said. "Gold responded positively to lower yield."
“人們擔心收益率下降表明增長預期顯著降低，”梅萊克說。 “黃金對收益率下降做出了積極反應。”
For gold, an accommodative Fed means a chance to get back to $1,900 an ounce within the next few months, Melek added.
Melek 補充說，對於黃金而言，寬鬆的美聯儲意味著有機會在未來幾個月內回到每盎司 1,900 美元。
Range-bound trading is also a high probability in the near-term as traders head for summer holidays, said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.
盛寶銀行大宗商品策略主管 Ole Hansen 表示，隨著交易員前往暑假，短期內區間交易的可能性也很高。
"A lot of traders will be shutting down their computers for summer holidays, so investors can expect to see a lot of noise in the marketplace for at least the next month. I wouldn't want to sell gold, but you don't want to aggressively buy either," Hansen said.
“許多交易員會在暑假期間關閉他們的電腦，因此投資者至少在下個月會看到市場上的很多噪音。我不想賣黃金，但你不想積極購買，”漢森說。
By Anna Golubova
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
來源: Kitco News
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