2021-07-14 假牛市的頂峰
Peak of the fake bull market假牛市的頂峰
Michael Pento
Tuesday July 13, 2021
We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit margins. The economy has enjoyed peak fiscal and monetary stimulus and those tailwinds will soon become strong headwinds. Also, peak tax relief is now in the rear-view mirror; and higher taxes are around the corner. Finally, peak asset valuations have arrived and the associated wealth effect is now waning.
我們可能非常接近這個假牛市和經濟的頂峰。疫苗接種高峰期，以及對大流行被戰勝和經濟重新開放的樂觀情緒達到高峰。美國公司正在經歷利潤率峰值。經濟已經享受了財政和貨幣刺激的高峰期，這些順風很快就會變成強大的逆風。此外，峰值稅收減免現在在後視鏡中；更高的稅收即將來臨。最後，資產估值峰值已經到來，相關的財富效應現在正在減弱。
Confirming this view is a series of slowing economic data--a reduction in the rate of change in growth and inflation. For now, this is not a crisis or a recession; but is set to become one next year. Here are some facts and data:
一系列放緩的經濟數據證實了這一觀點——增長和通脹變化率的下降。就目前而言，這不是危機或衰退；但明年將成為其中之一。以下是一些事實和數據：
Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures were virtually unchanged. Despite that fact that job openings are at all-time high, at the same time, initial jobless claims are running at a level that is 75% above/higher than the pre-pandemic level. This begs the question: why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?
根據經濟分析局的數據，5 月份個人收入減少了 4143 億美元（2.0%）。個人消費支出幾乎沒有變化。儘管職位空缺一直處於歷史最高水平，但與此同時，首次申請失業救濟人數的水平比大流行前水平高出/高出 75%。這就引出了一個問題：儘管經濟已經重新開放，但為什麼美國裁員的速度比 COVID-19 之前高出四分之三？畢竟，大流行危機現在已經一年半了；裁員不是應該幾乎不存在嗎？
The U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened 2.8% to $88.1 billion in May. The current account deficit, a broader trade measure than includes earnings on investments, widened to a 14-year high in the first quarter. What this means is that US economy is not really booming at all, it is just taking newly minted dollars and buying things that are made overseas. What we have is peak consumption of things that aren't made in the USA. Hence, there is not a condition of sustainable and robust GDP growth.
美國 5 月國際商品貿易逆差擴大 2.8% 至 881 億美元。經常賬戶赤字是一項比包括投資收益在內的更廣泛的貿易指標，在第一季度擴大至 14 年高位。這意味著美國經濟根本沒有真正繁榮，它只是拿新鑄造的美元購買海外製造的東西。我們擁有的是非美國製造的東西的消費高峰。因此，不存在可持續和強勁的 GDP 增長的條件。
And, even the once mighty housing market is starting to cool down sharply. Mortgage applications to purchase a home were 17% lower than the same week ending June 25th one year ago. The reason: home prices have risen to the highest level ever—up 14.6% y/y; and are becoming more and more unaffordable relative to incomes, while the cost to take out a loan has increased.
而且，即使曾經強大的房地產市場也開始急劇降溫。購買房屋的抵押貸款申請比一年前截至 6 月 25 日的同一周減少了 17%。原因是：房價已升至有史以來的最高水平——同比上漲 14.6%；並且相對於收入而言變得越來越難以負擔，而貸款的成本也在增加。
What all this means is that the stock market has reached a point that is in peak danger of a crash. This condition is virtually unavoidable given that the boom was completely artificial and thus unsustainable. In fact, the economy in an even more fragile state than it was prior to the pandemic. However, and this is crucial, even though chaos is coming, the timing for it start is not at this moment. We need to be vigilant for a recession and/or credit crisis because that will be the catalyst for the 30-80% plunge to begin. This is what my 20-point IDEC model is designed to predict.
這一切意味著股市已經達到了崩盤危險的高峰。鑑於繁榮完全是人為的，因此不可持續，這種情況實際上是不可避免的。事實上，經濟處於比大流行之前更加脆弱的狀態。不過，而且這很關鍵，雖然混亂即將來臨，但開始的時機卻不是此時。我們需要對衰退和/或信貸危機保持警惕，因為這將成為暴跌 30-80% 的催化劑。這就是我的 20 點 IDEC 模型旨在預測的內容。
There now exists the greatest amount of margin debt on record, both in nominal terms and percentage of GDP terms. The numbers are $812 billion, which is nearly 4% of GDP. Also, passively managed funds now account for nearly half of all mutual fund and ETF assets. Up from just 14% in 2005. This means investors are just blindly piling into funds that mirror the averages. Hence, when the next bear market arrives, the market will go no bid as a result of the massive liquidations of these funds that occur simultaneously. This will force these same funds to sell the underlying securities to meet redemptions, which will in turn cause more passive holders to panic out of these funds.
現在存在有記錄以來最大的保證金債務，無論是名義金額還是佔 GDP 的百分比。這些數字為 8120 億美元，接近 GDP 的 4%。此外，被動管理的基金現在佔所有共同基金和 ETF 資產的近一半。從 2005 年的 14% 上升。這意味著投資者只是盲目地湧入反映平均水平的基金。因此，當下一個熊市到來時，由於同時發生這些資金的大量清算，市場將不會有任何出價。這將迫使這些相同的基金出售標的證券以滿足贖回，這反過來又會導致更多的被動持有者對這些基金感到恐慌。
Avoiding huge drawdowns in your investment portfolio is absolutely mandatory. According to NED Davis research, since 1960, the average time for the S&P 500 to recover from a 20% correction is 3 years. But a 20% correction isn't the real risk. As already indicated, the more likely danger is a 50%+ plunge. That is how much the market would have to drop just to get back to fair value, according to the most relevant metric total market cap of equities to GDP. Hence, the greatest opportunity to make money in this market should be to short it.
避免投資組合大幅縮水是絕對必要的。根據 NED Davis 的研究，自 1960 年以來，標準普爾 500 指數從 20% 的回調中恢復的平均時間為 3 年。但 20% 的修正並不是真正的風險。如前所述，更有可能的危險是暴跌 50% 以上。根據股票總市值與 GDP 的最相關指標，這就是市場必須下跌多少才能回到公允價值。因此，在這個市場上賺錢的最大機會應該是做空它。
The catalyst will be the same as what caused the downdrafts in 2000, 2008, 2018, & 2019: The Fed believes its own hype and begins to remove the monetary stimulus in the hope the economy has recovered. However, what the fed doesn’t understand, or refuses to acknowledge, is its massive manipulation of interest rates has caused the level of debt and asset prices to skyrocket far beyond the support of the free market, which places the economy in a much more dangerous position. Therefore, an innocuous removal of its falsified stimulus is impossible.
催化劑將與導致 2000 年、2008 年、2018 年和 2019 年下跌的原因相同：美聯儲相信自己的炒作，並開始取消貨幣刺激措施，希望經濟復甦。然而，美聯儲不理解或拒絕承認的是，它對利率的大規模操縱導致債務和資產價格的飆升遠遠超出了自由市場的支持，這使經濟陷入了更大的困境。危險的位置。因此，不可能無害地消除其偽造的貨幣刺激措施。
Bottom line: the bull market is ending because the fed is set to kill it. The process may be slow to evolve because the Mr. Powell probably won’t start tapering until the end of this year. However, once the process is in full gear, the reality check should begin.
一句話：牛市即將結束，因為美聯儲準備扼殺牠。這個過程可能進展緩慢，因為鮑威爾先生可能要到今年年底才會開始縮減規模。但是，一旦該過程全面啟動，就應該開始現實檢查。
By Michael Pento
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco Commentaries
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
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