2021-07-15 更多通脹證據，但美聯儲主席將打折通脹
More inflation evidence, but the Fed chair will discount inflation更多通脹證據，但美聯儲主席將打折通脹
The Hightower Report
Wednesday July 14, 2021
GOLD / SILVER
黃金/白銀
We continue to be a skeptical bull toward gold and even more skeptical toward silver. However, gold prices have shown resiliency over the past three-and-a- half weeks and have forged gains off a rise in open interest and generally strong trading volume. In the action today the markets will be presented with US producer price index readings for June, with expectations calling for a 0.6% gain, which is in the inflationary range but is softer than the gain last month. Another potential volatility event is midday testimony by the Federal Reserve Chairman to Congress, where the trade will attempt to glean the latest view and stance from the Fed. With Democrats agreeing on another large US stimulus package, it will be interesting to see if the Federal Reserve Chairman has any concerns that the stimulus may move inflation from transitory to sustainable. Certainly, gold continues to face a conundrum where strong inflation and stimulus packages are likely to firm the dollar and hold back gold and silver prices. The US CPI report yesterday failed to spark a typical inflation rally in gold and silver despite some price measures registering the hottest readings since 2013. It should also be noted that the CPI excluding food and energy was also hot and above expectations. A potential negative for gold and silver today comes from yesterday's 30-year US Treasury Bond auction, which showed dismal demand, which could put pressure on gold and silver from the rising interest rate argument. From a longer-term perspective, the gold market could be supported by supply disruptions in South Africa following reports of riots brought on by surging infections, a lack of vaccines, and financial problems from the pandemic. Silver has been solidifying consolidation low support just under $26.00 this week, and the market should benefit from news of a 1-million-ounce inflow into silver ETFs yesterday, news that Silver Corp. first quarter production declined 12% due to labor issues, and from a significant jump in silver ETF VIX readings this week, as we think that shows silver is beginning to react to daily events. In a potential bullish long-term development, the major South African gold miner Sibanye announced they would "wind down" gold mines in South Africa because they are nonperforming investments.
我們繼續對黃金持懷疑態度，對白銀更加持懷疑態度。然而，黃金價格在過去三個半星期表現出彈性，並因未平倉合約增加和交易量普遍強勁而獲利。在今天的行動中，市場將看到 6 月份美國生產者物價指數讀數，預期上漲 0.6%，處於通脹範圍內，但比上個月的漲幅要弱。另一個潛在的波動事件是美聯儲主席中午向國會作證，交易將試圖收集美聯儲的最新觀點和立場。隨著民主黨就美國的另一項大型刺激計劃達成一致，看看美聯儲主席是否擔心刺激措施可能會將通脹從暫時性轉變為可持續，這將是一件有趣的事情。當然，黃金繼續面臨一個難題，即強勁的通脹和刺激計劃可能會鞏固美元並抑制黃金和白銀價格。儘管一些價格指標錄得自 2013 年以來最熱的數據，但昨天美國 CPI 報告未能引發黃金和白銀的典型通脹反彈。還應該指出的是，不包括食品和能源的 CPI 也很熱並高於預期。今天對黃金和白銀的潛在負面影響來自昨天的 30 年期美國國債拍賣，該拍賣顯示需求低迷，這可能會對利率上升的爭論對黃金和白銀造成壓力。從長期來看，南非的供應中斷可能會支撐黃金市場，此前有報導稱感染人數激增、缺乏疫苗以及大流行造成的財務問題引發騷亂。白銀本週一直在鞏固低於 26.00 美元的低位支撐位，市場應該會受益於昨天有 100 萬盎司資金流入白銀 ETF 的消息，以及 Silver Corp. 第一季度產量因勞工問題下降 12% 的消息，以及本週白銀 ETF VIX 讀數大幅上漲，因為我們認為這表明白銀開始對日常事件做出反應。在潛在的看漲長期發展中，南非主要金礦商 Sibanye 宣布他們將“關閉”南非的金礦，因為它們是不良投資。
PGM
鉑金族
The bull camp in palladium and platinum was deflated by the lack of price reactions to yesterday's hot US CPI report. It appears that the palladium market is primarily a physical commodity instrument and thus far it is not interested in inflationary signals. However, palladium also failed to benefit from supportive fundamental news in the form of strong Chinese export readings for June, as those strong exports should help fuel further Chinese growth and therefore automobile sales. Close in support in the September palladium contract is seen at $2,791 and then again down at $2,780. Platinum prices on Tuesday held most of the gains forged on Monday, leaving a four-day recovery pattern on the charts. The platinum market should also be supported by an inflow to platinum ETF holdings yesterday of 2,359 ounces that brings the year-to-date gain back up to 3.2%. Unfortunately for the bull camp, there do not appear to be bullish fundamental themes operating in the platinum trade, so we remain skeptical of the late June and early July rally. We would also note that the spec and fund net long in platinum is relatively overbought compared to palladium and that trading volume fell off on the recent rally through the $1,050 level. This could make it difficult to sustain pricing above $1,110. Critical support in October platinum is seen at the 21-day moving average of $1,093.70 and then again down at $1,085.30.
由於對昨天炙手可熱的美國 CPI 報告缺乏價格反應，鈀金和鉑金的多頭陣營被削弱。鈀金市場似乎主要是一種實物商品工具，到目前為止它對通脹信號不感興趣。然而，鈀金也未能從中國 6 月出口數據強勁的基本面消息中受益，因為這些強勁的出口應有助於推動中國的進一步增長，從而推動汽車銷售。 9 月鈀金合約的收盤支撐位為 2,791 美元，然後再次下跌至 2,780 美元。週二的鉑金價格守住了周一的大部分漲幅，在圖表上留下了四天的複蘇模式。鉑金市場也應該受到昨天流入 2,359 盎司的鉑金 ETF 持有量的支撐，這使年初至今的漲幅回升至 3.2%。不幸的是，對於多頭陣營來說，鉑金交易中似乎沒有看漲的基本面，因此我們仍然對 6 月底和 7 月初的反彈持懷疑態度。我們還注意到，與鈀金相比，鉑金的投機和基金淨多頭相對超買，並且交易量在近期反彈至 1,050 美元水平後有所下降。這可能會使定價難以維持在 1,110 美元以上。 10 月鉑金的關鍵支撐位在 21 天移動平均線 1,093.70 美元，然後再次下跌至 1,085.30 美元。
MARKET IDEAS: Even though we remain skeptical toward the bull track for gold, the market has shown the ability to extend a slow, hard-fought recovery in the face of adverse headlines. The gains following the CPI report yesterday were disappointing to the gold trade, which highlights a lack of classic inflationary reaction in the precious metal space. With a likely repeat of yesterday's inflation news today from US PPI, followed by Federal Reserve chairman testimony to Congress, it is likely that the debate over transitory or sustained inflation will be front and center. However, few in Congress are likely to express concern for inflation, with the Democrats planning to force through a $3.5 trillion stimulus package. The bias in gold is up, but the control by the bull camp is limited and at times fleeting.
市場觀點：儘管我們仍對黃金的牛市走勢持懷疑態度，但面對不利的頭條新聞，市場已經顯示出延續緩慢、艱難的複甦的能力。昨天 CPI 報告後的漲幅令黃金交易失望，這凸顯了貴金屬領域缺乏典型的通脹反應。隨著今天美國 PPI 可能重複昨天的通脹消息，隨後美聯儲主席向國會作證，關於暫時或持續通脹的辯論很可能成為焦點。然而，國會中很少有人可能表達對通脹的擔憂，民主黨計劃強行通過 3.5 萬億美元的刺激計劃。黃金的偏向上升，但多頭陣營的控制是有限的，有時是轉瞬即逝的。
COPPER COMMENTARY
銅評論
Failure to rally off Chinese exports & inflation is bearish
中國出口和通脹未能反彈是看跌的
Entering the third trading session of the week, the copper charts favor the bear camp with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows combined with weakness in iron ore and nickel prices potentially pushing copper into a new low for the week. The bull camp should be thoroughly disappointed in the market's inability to rally yesterday following stronger than expected Chinese export data for June. In other words, the markets saw favorable economic signs from the world's largest consumer of copper and failed to push prices up following that news. Later in the session, copper also failed to rally off a hotter than expected US inflation result, which also highlights a tenuous bull contingent. On the other hand, China did document soft copper import readings, the dollar is showing signs of strengthening because of US inflation readings this week, and fear of lost global copper demand can be justified by an expanding number of areas encountering a surge in infections and political/economic unrest in South Africa, Cuba, and China.
進入本週的第三個交易日，銅價走勢看好熊市，高點低位走低，加上鐵礦石和鎳價疲軟，可能將銅價推至本週新低。在中國 6 月份出口數據強於預期之後，昨天市場未能反彈，多頭陣營應該徹底失望。換句話說，市場看到了來自全球最大銅消費國的有利經濟跡象，但未能在該消息後推高價格。盤中晚些時候，銅價也未能從比預期更熱的美國通脹結果中反彈，這也凸顯了脆弱的牛市情況。另一方面，中國確實記錄了疲軟的銅進口數據，由於本周美國的通脹數據，美元顯示出走強的跡象，而且越來越多的地區遇到感染和激增的情況可以證明對全球銅需求減少的擔憂是合理的。南非、古巴和中國的政治/經濟動盪。
MARKET IDEAS: We give the edge to the bear camp in copper today, as a patently supportive Chinese export reading failed to rekindle the bull track. The market also failed to benefit from news that China recently moved to reduce its reserve rate requirements for banks. Support and downside targeting in September copper seen at $4.2325.
市場觀點：由於明顯支持中國出口的數據未能重新點燃牛市，我們今天給銅的熊市陣營提供了優勢。市場也未能從中國最近採取行動降低銀行存款準備金率要求的消息中受益。 9 月期銅的支撐和下行目標為 4.2325 美元。
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: The Hightower Report
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
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